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Who Is Winning The Superbowl

06 Jan 2019

Wildcard weekend had four really entertaining games. Based off my last post, my logistic model went 2-2, and the NN went 3-1 (although the Bears game was super close.) So which one should I trust? I’m going to run the rest of the playoffs for each model, and see who comes out as this year’s world champion.

Logistic Model

Divisional Round

Indianapolis Colts 19.1%, Kansas City Chiefs 80.9%

Los Angeles Chargers 42.1%, New England Patriots 57.9%

Philadelphia Eagles 11.5%, New Orleans Saints 88.5%

Dallas Cowboys 14.9%, Los Angeles Rams 85.1%

So, moving onto the AFC championship will be the Chiefs and the Patriots. As for the NFC, it will be the Saints and the Rams.

Conference Championship

New England Patriots 19.4%, Kansas City Chiefs 80.6%

Los Angeles Rams 28.2%, New Orleans Saints 71.8%

Strong predictions this time from the logistic model. Superbowl will be between the Chiefs and the Saints

Superbowl

Kansas City Chiefs 41.6%, New Orleans Saints 58.4%

So there you have it, the New Orleans Saints are your 2018-2019 Superbowl champs!

NN Model

Divisional Round

Indianapolis Colts 10.7%, Kansas City Chiefs 89.3%

Los Angeles Chargers 23.9%, New England Patriots 76.1%

Philadelphia Eagles 4.2%, New Orleans Saints 95.8%

Dallas Cowboys 1.6%, Los Angeles Rams 98.4%

This model has some really strong predictions here, so we’ll see how these play out. AFC championship will include the Chiefs and Patriots, while the NFC will be the Saints and Rams.

Conference Championship

New England Patriots 0.3%, Kansas City Chiefs 99.7%

Los Angeles Rams 12.4%, New Orleans Saints 87.6%

These are pretty funny, in my opinion. Giving Tom Brady a 0.3% chance to beat the Chiefs could only be done by a computer who doesn’t know who Tom Brady is. But alas, the Superbowl will be between the Saints and Chiefs.

Superbowl

Kansas City Chiefs 35.7%, New Orleans Saints 64.3%

Both models agree that the Saints will win the championship this year.